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Vikings–Buccaneers, Week 3: Bend But Don't Break

September 27, 2026 · 7 min read

#vikings#buccaneers#week-3

D’andre Swift was about a 6-inch subway sandwich away from changing the game for the Bears by scoring a rushing touchdown early in the third quarter, before he got re-introduced to Jalen Redmond, whose fist got reintroduced to the football. Caleb Williams seemed to have a pretty good chance to make something happen as he scrambled left toward the end zone before his hamstring injury, after which backup QB Tyson Bagent came in and tried but decisively failed to find the end zone, again from inside the 10 yard line. Chicago should’ve scored at least a single touchdown in that game.

If you look at the past five seasons of NFL football (2021-2025), teams have only turned the ball over on first and goal at the 1 opportunities a whopping 2.5% of the time. Moving to the blocked kick by Isaiah Rodgers that came subsequently from that same Bagent drive, over that same five-year-span, kickers have gone 140-for-140 on field goals from 23 yards out, not blocked a single time. Minnesota beat the odds with some crucial plays in critical moments, not unlike the Packers game from Week 1. This is not a sustainable way for the Vikings to win football games. But 2-0 is the end that justifies and redeems whatever means got you there.

The Vikings offensive struggles have an obvious source, and it’s the quarterback position. This is not to say that Carson Wentz hasn’t done a more than applaudable job leading the team after being thrown in following starter Kyler Murray falling face-first into an awfully-low-launching Javon Bullard on the second offensive series of the season. Wentz really has done his job near the best as could be expected of him to do so. But with 48 total points so far this season, the team has under 300 total passing yards. While three touchdowns and no picks (106.4 QB rating) is nice, it’s on only 44 attempts with a 59.1% completion percentage, 66.7% on-target throw percentage (second worst in the league), as well as an 11.9% drop-rate (worst in the league). This team has used momentum and the most bold blitzing strategy in the league to get to where they are — the definition of bend but don’t break.

Minnesota defense Per game Rank
Total yards allowed 358.0 25th
Passing yards allowed 258.0 27th
Points allowed 12.5 4th

So the question now is whether they can sustain that while also getting the passing game going again. Kyler will start after making it through the concussion protocol, and will need to gel and re-acclimate quickly to beat a slanted Buccaneers defense.

Tampa is 4th against the run so far this year, allowing only three yards per attempt and 150 total rushing yards, but against the pass they’re allowing a 75.4% completion percentage and a 105.4 passer rating. Even though they’ve allowed fewer total passing yards than Minnesota, that portion of their defense is clearly their weak spot, and one that the Vikings’ struggling passing offense desperately needs to exploit.

An interesting related finding has to do with what the Buccaneers like to do on offense versus what the Vikings like to do on defense: motion usage vs. sending extra blitzers. The pre-snap antics are going to be a chess match all game long, with Vikings defenders needing to stay disciplined to disguise their blitzes against a potentially hard-count-happy Baker. Mayfield as well will need to be cerebral with his pre-snap adjustments and reads, utilizing their league-leading motion rate (76.3%) to manipulate and force the defense into showing their hand. He knows that Minnesota is going to be blitzing nearly every play (an impossible 75.9% blitz rate, 27.8 percentage points higher than Carolina in second), but the key is correctly diagnosing who’s actually coming, who’s dropping, and how best to make the defense pay.

Lastly before the pre-kickoff questions, some interesting numbers to paint the picture of Tampa’s play-calling and structure so far this year.

Tampa Bay passing profile Value
Play action rate 21.9% (2nd in the league)
Intended air yards per attempt 9.1
Air yards per completion 3.3
Time to throw 3.1 seconds
Share of passing yards from YAC 63%

Those all give the impression that this offense has looked to rip it deep. The offensive line has done their job in holding up long enough to do so, but 63% of Tampa’s passing yards have come from YAC (yards after catch, receiver doing the work) so far. Even though the Bucs have pivoted to shorter passing attempts and checkdowns as a concession rather than it being their offensive focus, if they could commit to that identity against Minnesota, they would be better for it. Getting the ball out of Mayfield’s hands and into their talented playmakers’ as quickly as possible against the endless aggression Flores will be bringing is going to be a major key to victory for Tampa Bay.

Pre-Kickoff Questions

1. Can Minnesota get the passing offense in rhythm?

Baseline: 44 attempts, 294 gross passing yards in two games. 66.7% on-target throws (second-worst), 11.9% drops (worst). Tampa allows a 75.4% completion rate and a 105.4 rating. Murray back off concussion protocol.

Answered yes if: Minnesota nets 200+ passing yards and a QB rating above 90, as well as if the on-target throw percentage is above 75% (around league average) for this game.

Answered no if: the run-volume takes no dip and the scoring output is pedestrian, relying on the field position game and red zone opportunities to get points.

2. Does Tampa OC Zac Robinson keep calling play action against the league’s most blitz-heavy defense?

Baseline: Tampa is second (21.9%) in PA usage in the league. Ben Johnson and the Bears significantly reduced their usage in the previous game against the Vikings.

Answered yes if: Tampa stays near the 20% PA mark.

Answered no if: PA usage lands closer to 10% than 20%.

3. Who wins the pre-snap chess match over the course of the game?

Baseline: Minnesota 75.9% blitz, 4.4% man, middle-of-field open 57.5% of snaps after the snap. Tampa 76.3% motion, first in the league.

Answered for Tampa if: Baker is able to draw two or more Vikings pre-snap penalties, or he kills plays and changes at the line, resulting in obvious wins.

Answered for Minnesota if: Tampa’s own pre-snap penalties outnumber the ones they draw, meaning the disguise won and the cadence only caused dysfunction for Tampa’s offense.

4. Does Tampa take what will (seemingly) be there in the underneath game, or do they keep holding for the deep shots?

Baseline: 9.1 intended air yards per attempt, 3.3 completed, 63% of passing yards after the catch, 3.1-second time to throw, seven sacks in two games.

Answered yes if: intended air yards drops toward 7 and Mayfield takes two sacks or fewer.

Answered no if: intended stays above 8 yards per attempt and he takes four or more sacks, meaning the offense insisted on being what it has tried to be so far against a defense that punishes it.

5. Will Minnesota’s defense finally break?

Baseline: Fourth in the league in points allowed at 12.5 per game — while sitting 25th in total yards allowed (358.0/g) and 27th against the pass (258.0/g). They surrender the field and then don’t surrender the score, on the back of that same blitz-heavy approach out of base personnel (their 43% sub rate is the lowest in football).

Tampa is the first offense that might be built to punish it. They’ve faced a blitz on just 14.5% of their attempts all season, so nothing about their two games tells us how they handle this — but an offense already living on quick releases and YAC is the wrong one to send five at.

Answered yes, it broke, if: Tampa clears 24 points, or is able to convert 3+ red zone trips into touchdowns.

Answered no, they held, if: Tampa outgains Minnesota again and still finishes under 20 points, with at least one drive inside the 25 ending in a turnover, a sack, or a field goal. The pattern continues, and it becomes what the defense is known for.

What would make it the wrong question: Tampa never threatens. If Minnesota’s blitz gets home early and the Bucs punt six times, we learn that this specific offense can’t handle pressure — not whether the bend-don’t-break equilibrium holds against one that can.

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